Surprise results prompt chess ratings enquiry

(Chronicle Chess 22 September 2023)

What do these sports have in common: Football, baseball, American football, basketball, pool and table tennis?
The answer is they all use the Elo system, a way of rating chess players invented by US physics professor Arpad Elo.

Elo predicted the expected score by two players in a competitive game. Two players rated the same are expected to score 50 percent. If a player is rated 100 points higher, the expected score rises to 64 percent; if it’s 200 points higher, that rises to 76 percent.

Elo’s system has stood the test of time, but in recent years its chess ratings have started to show signs of distortion. At the top end (where Magnus Carlsen plays mostly against other super grandmasters) there are clear signs of inflation.

Meanwhile, at the other end of the ratings scale, juniors are coming onto to the system with far lower ratings than their real strength – in part because they play most of their games online, and in their first over-the-board games, they tend to under-perform.

Underrated and unrated players can create problems in club matches.

For example, in the Northumbria Summer KO Plate Final this week, a 2-2 draw meant that Newcastle University B (average age less than 20) won against Gateshead, (average age over 70) based on the students’ marginally lower estimated average ratings.

In a generous move, after the match the University players offered to share the Plate trophy with their more experienced opponents.

In money tournaments, ratings can also cause headaches, as a few players unscrupulously throw games after team matches are decided so that they can enter lower rating category tournaments and have a better chance of winning prizes.

It’s difficult to prove this unethical practice, known as ‘sandbagging,’ and tournament organisers rarely bar or reassign a player.

The next two tournaments coming up on Tyneside give opportunities for players of all ratings to take part.

The Newcastle Central Chess Club Blitz is on Monday 25 September at the Tyneside Irish Centre, 6:30pm-9:30pm. It’s open to everyone, and the time control is 5 minutes, plus three seconds per move. Games qualify for international (FIDE) ratings. To enter the Blitz, email: timpeterwall@gmail.com.

The 59th Northumberland Weekender takes place at the Parks Leisure Centre, Howdon Rd, North Shields NE29 6TL from 29 September to 1 October. There are Open (FIDE-rated), Major (Under 1900), Minor (Under 1675) and Foundation (Under 1450) tournaments.

In line with the ‘amateur’ ethos of most local congresses, the prizes (£350 for 1st, £200 for 2nd and £100 for 3rd) are the same in the Open, Major and Minor, even though the levels of play are quite different. Entries are being taken online at: https://northumberlandchess.wixsite.com/congress